Aston Villa head coach Unai Emery has faced questions about challenging for Champions League football in almost every press conference this season.

His response hasn’t changed. He claims Manchester City, Liverpool, Arsenal, Tottenham, Newcastle, Manchester United and Chelsea are all ahead of Villa in the hunt for European football, let alone a top four or top five finish this term.

For how long outsiders will take Emery's comments seriously will depend on whether Villa can sustain the form they have shown in the first three months of the campaign. Last season, Newcastle managed to remain consistent over the course of the entire season to finish in top four, but won four fewer points than Villa have after 12 matches.

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Here are five reasons why Villa can bid for Champions League football come May...

Form over 12 months

Villa’s strong start to the campaign under Emery is a continuation of the form which his side had exhibited since the end of February. After winning five of his first ten matches at Villa head coach, Emery hasn’t lost back-to-back league games on more than one occasion.

Since beating Everton 2-0 at Goodison Park back in February, only once have Villa failed to win after losing or drawing their previous match. During his first year in charge, Emery has a win percentage of 60.5 per cent, which is higher than any other manager in the club’s long history, even ahead of George Ramsay – who won six league titles and six FA Cups – on 49 per cent.

In 2023, only Man City have won more top-flight league games than Villa, while Emery’s side managed to equal a club record of 21 Premier League victories in a calendar year after beating Fulham 3-1 last Sunday. They have games against Man City, Arsenal, Sheffield United and Burnley to break that remarkable record.

So suggestions that Villa could finish inside the top five hold a lot more substance when you take into consideration the body of work Emery has during his first 12 months at Villa Park, rather than just the first 12 games of the season. Villa have collected 68 points in 2023 over 34 league games, which is the same amount as Arsenal, with only Man City managing more.

No signs of midweek toil

When you look at the games which Villa have played this season, there’s plenty to dissect. Across all competitions, Emery’s side have already played 19 games, winning 14 and drawing one.

They have, up until this point, managed the extra load of Europa Conference League matches very well. Before the start of the season, the main reasons why Villa were not put in the conversation for a top six finish was due to their involvement in Europe, something which West Ham struggled with last season.

But under Emery - a manager who has coached teams in European competitions for 17 consecutive seasons - Villa players are given all the tools and information they need to go out on any given Sunday or Thursday night and execute a very detailed game plan.

In the first three months of the season, excluding international breaks, Villa have had only two weeks when they haven’t played in Europe or in the Carabao Cup. Emery’s side have proven they can cope with Europe to this point, but knockout rounds bring a different pressure especially if Villa are to compete for a Champions League finish too.

However, this squad has already proven they can handle pressure and indeed relish opportunity. After going ten games unbeaten from the end of February to the end of April, Villa lost back-to-back games against United and Wolves. With pressure on to claim at least seven points in their final three games against European rivals Tottenham, Liverpool and Brighton, Emery’s men stepped up and delivered when it mattered most.

Firepower

Goals win games and Emery’s side are free-scoring at Villa Park. After beating Fulham 3-1, Villa became only the second team in Premier League history to score three or more goals in each of their opening six home league games after Man City achieved the same feat last term.

Villa have won each of their last 13 home games in the league, which is their longest such run in the top-flight since October 1983, while they have also won 14 home games in the Premier League in 2023 – as many as in the previous two calendar years combined.

Summer signing Moussa Diaby and Ollie Waktins have made more chances for one another than any other duo in the Premier League, while Villa’s number 11 is aiming to become the first Villa player to bag 20 or more goals in the Premier League this season.

Watkins has been directly involved in 26 Premier League goals across 2023 (18 goals, eight assists), with only Erling Haaland and Mohamed Salah boasting more involvements across this calendar year.

Only Man City have scored more goals than Villa so far this season, but the vast majority of the goals which Emery’s side have scored have come in front of home fans. Their away form is something which needs to be improved on to better their chances of finishing inside the top five.

Villa's calling card

Last season, under Emery, Villa beat Man United and Newcastle convincingly, scoring three goals in each game, while they also did the double over Tottenham and Brighton. They also beat Chelsea on the road, took a point from Anfield and kept eight clean sheets.

While Villa have come unstuck a couple of times away from home so far this season and have only kept two Premier League clean sheets in total, Emery has proven he is able to coach this Villa side to play and win in different ways.

The Villa head coach is still searching for the perfect balance between scoring goals and keeping them out at the other end this season, but his side have sent statements to other Champions League chasing sides. Before putting four past West Ham at home, Brighton were thrashed 6-1. Both of those teams started the campaign with aspirations to qualify for Europe this season and finishing above Villa.

Ramsey and Moreno returns

It’s testament to the remarkable job which Emery has performed that Tyrone Mings and Emi Buendia are both out for the season after suffering respective knee injuries at the start of the campaign, while neither Jacob Ramsey and Alex Moreno have even started a game yet.

Moreno and Ramsey were both crucial to Villa’s form last season, and their returns after the international break will give Emery a huge boost. Moreno joined in the January window and made a transformational impact on the team, while Ramsey registered nine goal involvements in the final 12 league games of the season.

The 22-year-old also played a part in four of the five goals which Villa scored in their crucial final three games of the season against Tottenham, Liverpool and Brighton. Unlike other teams who are losing players to injury, Villa will welcome back two players who are sure to make up for lost time this term.

What do you make of Villa's chances of qualifying for Champions League football? Tell us in the comments section...